ISSN: 1814-9669

Volume 12, Issue 47

Volume 12, Issue 47, Summer 2018, Page 1-155


Support prices electricity pricing the electricity sector in Iraq

Economic Sciences, Volume 12, Issue 47, Pages 1-19

The support prices set of actions and the foundations and principles associated with achieving certain goals, whether social or economic reflected in the support budget defined according to a specific program for a certain period for a policy, and be part of the state and private budget financing expenses under way, and work to support prices, among other goals purpose is to create incentives policy Encouragement of the product and the consumer and achieving economic well-being.
The electric power sector is one of the vital sectors that countries interested in the different stages of growth to support her, and vary the support and means of application of a period of time to another in accordance with the target of support policies, according to the interim conditions experienced by the community, so we focus in this research to support the prices of the energy sector policy electrical in Iraq by virtue of the fact that the electricity sector is the main engine of the economy and the various activities and the electric power sector is a strong construction and development of economic important element for the exploitation of the wealth and resources of the country in a more sedate mainstay, but the problem facing price-support policy in the field of electric power generation in Iraq is direct support for the electricity sector in the wrong locality where this support directed to fill the accumulated losses for the sector, as well as on the pricing policy in the electricity sector are not based on economic principles and foundations because of low electricity prices that do not cover the cost of production and the consequent many negative effects which reflected the deterioration in the efficiency of the electricity sector.

Economic Impact of Armed Conflicts in Arab Countries

Economic Sciences, Volume 12, Issue 47, Pages 20-44

The research deals with the factors that helped the emergence of armed conflicts in the Arab countries at the local, regional and international levels, which contributed to the expansion of the regional conflict in the form of ISIS (Da'aish) expansion in Iraq, Syria and Libya.
The importance of the Arab oil countries on the level of the world energy map which made it a competitive field among nations. Thus, wide-ranging interests have been created directly in the continuation of armed conflicts, and these conflicts have serious consequences for millions of human victims. The destruction of infrastructure, the disruption of the social structure, the increase in poverty and disease, the displacement of the population, the decrease in spending on health and education, and the increase in military expenditures and other economic effects.

The Influence of Knowledge Management in the Improvement for Innovations of Product and Process

Economic Sciences, Volume 12, Issue 47, Pages 45-79

This research aims to determine the effect of knowledge management in the enhancement of the innovation process the adoption of the coordination process in each of the (analysis , definition, design, act) and operational in each of the (knowledge creation, knowledge sharing , knowledge application ) as has been the expression of the process of innovation in each of (product innovation, process innovation), the research was conducted in the Iraqi Drilling Company, were also obtain the necessary information through the questionnaire prepared for this purpose, , which surveyed the opinions of (110) managers from the levels of management in the company, it was used of statistical methods, the arithmetic mean and standard deviation, and multiple regression test, as the study reached a set of conclusions of which there is a positive and significant effect of knowledge management at the level of coordination at the level of ( analysis process) in the innovation process, and also there is a positive and significant effect of operational processes at the level of (sharing of knowledge ) in the innovation process as the research reached a number of recommendations

Analyzing Stochastic Models For Non- stationary Time Series of Blood Cancer Diseases (Leukemia) in Basra Governorate

Economic Sciences, Volume 12, Issue 47, Pages 80-101

In this research ,I've tried to study one of the blood cancer diseases which we called ،Leukemia , in Basra governorate . In this study I've taken the unstable stochastic models, through which an analysis has been made to identity the most significant properties in the process of constructing the suitable models for the intended case study , in such a way that I have depended on the basic stages in building the specified time series models beginning from the diagnose process up to the stage of producing the appropriate model ,and predicting the given phenomenon using Box-Jenkins way that's used to reconstruct the given model . Moreover, this would help in the process of analyzing these models by using (Box _ Ljung) test in which realistic data of blood cancer disease are used in the research, Finally ,it is worth to mention that the diagnosed model which put to the process of analysis is ARIMA(0,1,2) in the predicting process for years 2018 -2024 .
Keyword : Time series , Stochastic models for non- stationary time series , ARI(p,d)Autoregressive integrated model, IMA(d,q) Integrated moving average model ,Box – Jenkins method ,Bayesian criterion ,Maximum Likelihood Method , Least squares method , Moment method .

Use the Time Series for the period (2006-20016) to predict Rainfall in Iraqresearcher

Economic Sciences, Volume 12, Issue 47, Pages 102-121

استخدم اسلوب السلاسل الزمنية (Time Series) للتنبؤ بمعدلات كمية الامطار في العراق بالاعتماد على بيانات سلسلة زمنية لمعدل الامطار وللمدة (2016-2006) حيث اتضح ان بيانات هذه السلسلة الزمنية مستقرة (Weakly Stationary) وان النموذج الملائم هو انموذج ARIMA (0,0,2).
الكلمات الافتتاحية: بوكس جينكيز ، جذر الوحدة ، اختبار دكي -فوللر

Experimental study to compare Robust proposed methods for estimating nonparametric function of cluster data with other methods

Economic Sciences, Volume 12, Issue 47, Pages 122-146

The statistical analysis aims to assess the impact of the explanatory variables on the response variables during period because the parametric models are subject to many restrictions and borrowings have been resorting to nonparametric models, the nonparametric function was estimated to nonparametric regression design for cluster data that are linked with the same cluster that represents response variables and explanatory variables across different time periods, respectively. It should be noted that the data cluster is similar to longitudinal data in terms of reliability of the data with the same cluster (sector of the longitudinal data) on each other.
This paper addressed to estimate the unknown nonparametric data cluster function by using Robust proposed methods to mimic the statistical methods but they are not affected by other influential values, where the performance of classical methods is weak in presence of these values, and compare it with other methods by using criteria standard MSE and MAE, and some of the functions within the simulation experience, which achieved less from the rest of the other function methods by using Huber Function to assess the nonparametric function of the cluster data.
Key words: nonparametric regression, cluster data, correlation matrices, Huber Function, MSE, MAE.

Constructing a New Weighted Exponential Pareto Distribution with Estimation

Economic Sciences, Volume 12, Issue 47, Pages 147-155

This paper deals with constructing a new probability distribution used for length biased data, which can be employed in development of proper model that use for data come for population which are size biased distribution, here we use the method to adjust the original distribution function from real data, and expectation of those data. The constructed distribution is called weighted exponential – Pareto (WEPD). The researcher work on construction the ( p.d.f ), C.D.F of this distribution, also deriving the general form of non-central and central moment (r^th moments about origin, and about μ), also the derivation of C.D.F need integration by incomplete Gamma formula. The r^th central moment formula is necessary for finding coefficient of Skewness and Kurtosis, which are used as a tool of some numerical method applied maximum likelihood estimators, and proposed estimators based on Cran's estimators. The last method is L – moment estimators, the comparison has been done through simulation using different values of sample size (n=40,80,100,150), the estimators were compared using MSE, MAPE ,all the results are explained in tables .
Keywords: biased sized distribution, WEPD, incomplete Gamma, maximum likelihood, maximum entropy, L – moment, Cran's estimator, MSE, MAPE.
This paper represent a sub – research taken from Ph.D thesis submitted to the department of statistics / college of administration and economic / University of Baghdad, Iraq.